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Palisade @RISK 7

We’re the difference between taking a guess and taking control. At Palisade, we turn the art of decision-making into a science that works for you.

Our innovative software solutions create usable insights from uncertain situations. As the leading provider of risk and decision analysis software for three decades, Palisade enables companies and organizations to evaluate risk at any level and decide what step comes next.

With offices around the world, Palisade offers a truly global presence. And, with over 150,000 decision makers using our products at top research universities and Fortune 500 companies, Palisade has a diverse client base that spans a broad range of industries and organizations.

Founded in 1984, Palisade is proud to celebrate its 30th year helping professionals make better decisions. From humble beginnings in our founder’s basement, to establishment as an internationally recognized industry leader, Palisade Corporation continues to focus on our core values: providing user-friendly analytical tools that enable decision-makers in any industry to choose the best approach.

The Future in Your Spreadsheet

Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money – or taking a loss — on your next venture? Or the likelihood that your project will finish on time and within budget? How about the probabilities of finding oil or gas, and in what amounts?

Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With @RISK®, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet model—and tells you how likely they are to occur. It mathematically and objectively computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios, then tells you the probabilities and risks associated with each different one. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty.

@RISK also helps you plan the best risk management strategies through the integration of RISKOptimizer, which combines Monte Carlo simulation with the latest solving technology to optimize any spreadsheet with uncertain values. Using genetic algorithms or OptQuest, along with @RISK functions, RISKOptimizer can determine the best allocation of resources, the optimal asset allocation, the most efficient schedule, and much more.

New in Version 7 – Enhanced Model Sharing, Advanced Analyses

New @RISK 7.0 offers a range of improvements for any decision maker, from general use enhancements to new, specialized analytical features. Enhanced model-sharing, improved reporting, and sophisticated new analyses make @RISK 7 the only risk analysis tool you’ll need.

Efficient Frontier Analysis
Especially useful in financial analysis, Efficient Frontiers determine the optimal return that can be expected from a portfolio at a given level of risk. This analysis is included with RISKOptimizer, the optimization component of @RISK available in the Industrial edition.

Copulas
Also useful in the financial community, copulas provide sophisticated methods for correlating uncertain @RISK variables that give the user more control over the correlation pattern.

@RISK Data Viewer
Allows you to display any spreadsheet data, not just simulation results, using all @RISK charts and graphing options.

Share @RISK Graphs and Models with Non-@RISK Users
Graphically share input distributions and simulation results with those who do not have @RISK installed on their computers using new Thumbnail graphs. They can simply open your workbook and see @RISK graphs attached to the cells they describe -- no special viewer required!

Customized Excel Reports
New custom Excel reports in @RISK enable you to create exactly the simulation results reports you want directly in Excel, automatically formatted for optimal viewing.

Auto-Updating
Users can choose to receive automatic notification of future updates from within @RISK, with a one-click installation system.

How @RISK Works

Running an analysis with @RISK involves three simple steps:

1. Set Up Your Model. Start by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK probability distribution functions, like Normal, Uniform, or over 50 others. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just one case. Choose your distribution from a graphical gallery, or define distributions using historical data for a given input. Even combine distributions with @RISK’s Compound function. Share specific distribution functions with others using the @RISK Library, or swap out @RISK functions for colleagues who don’t have @RISK.

Next, select your outputs—the "bottom line" cells whose values interest you. This could be potential profits, ROI, insurance claims payout, disease recovery rate, or anything at all.

Define Uncertainty with Ease
@RISK comes with over 50 distribution functions. These are true Excel functions, behaving the same way as Excel’s native functions and giving you total modeling flexibility. Choosing which @RISK distribution function to use is easy because @RISK comes with a graphical distribution gallery that lets you preview and compare various distributions before selecting them. You can even set up your distributions using percentiles as well as standard parameters, and overlay different distribution graphs for comparison. You can use historical or industry data and @RISK’s integrated data fitting tool BestFit® to select the best distribution function and the right parameters. You can select the type of data to be fit (e.g. continuous. discrete, or cumulative), filter the data, specify distribution types to be fit and specify Chi-Squared binning to be used. Fitted distributions are ranked based on three statistical tests, and may be compared graphically. You can even overlay graphs of multiple fitted distributions. Fit results can be linked to @RISK functions, so the functions will update automatically when input data changes.

Input distributions may be correlated with one another, individually or in a time series. Correlations are quickly defined in matrices that pop up over Excel, and a Correlated Time Series can be added in a single click. A Correlated Time Series is created from a multi-period range that contains a set of similar distributions in each time period.

All @RISK functions and correlations in your model are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Model window, and you can watch distribution graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.

Share Your Model with Others
@RISK functions can be stored in the @RISK Library, a SQL database for sharing with other @RISK users. @RISK functions may also be removed with the Function Swap feature, enabling your models be to shared with colleagues who don’t have @RISK installed. @RISK will keep track of any changes that occur in the spreadsheet while the @RISK functions were “swapped out.” You can control how @RISK should update formulas when it finds changes in the model. In addition, you can have @RISK automatically swap out functions when a workbook is saved and closed and automatically swap in if necessary when a workbook is opened.

2. Run the Simulation. Click the Simulate button and watch. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet model thousands of times. Each time, @RISK samples random values from the @RISK functions you entered, places them in your model, and records the resulting outcome. Explain the process to others by running your simulation in Demo Mode, with graphs and reports updating live as the simulation runs.

3. Understand Your Risks. The result of a simulation is a look at a whole range of possible outcomes, including the probabilities they will occur. Graph your results with histograms, Scatter Plots, cumulative curves, Box Plots, and more. Identify critical factors with Tornado charts and sensitivity analysis. Paste results into Excel, Word, or PowerPoint, or place them in the @RISK Library for other @RISK users. You can even save results and charts right inside your Excel workbook.

Clear, Easy-to-Understand Results
@RISK provides a wide range of graphs for interpreting and presenting your results to others. Histograms and cumulative curves show the probability of different outcomes occurring. Use overlay graphs to compare multiple results, and summary graphs and Box Plots to see risk and trends over time or over ranges. Right-click menus and handy toolbars make navigation a snap. All graphs are fully customizable—including titles, axes, scaling, colors, and more—and ready for export to Excel, Word, or PowerPoint. You can watch results graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.

@RISK provides you with sensitivity and scenario analyses to determine the critical factors in your models. Use sensitivity analysis to rank the distribution functions in your model according to the impact they have on your outputs. See the results clearly with an easy-to-interpret Tornado diagram, or uncover relationships with Scatter Plots. Sensitivity analysis pre-screens all inputs based on their precedence in formulas to outputs in your model, thus reducing irrelevant data. In addition, you can use @RISK’s Make Input function to select a formula whose value will be treated as an @RISK input for sensitivity analysis. In this way, multiple distributions can be combined into a single input, streamlining your sensitivity reports.

All simulation results for both outputs and inputs are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Results Summary window. Simulation results may be saved directly in your Excel workbook, and also placed in the @RISK Library to for sharing with other @RISK users.

Excel Ease of Use

@RISK is a true add-in to Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyze—while never leaving Excel. All @RISK functions are true Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. @RISK windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so changes in one place are carried out in the other. @RISK graphs point to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease, context-sensitive right-click menus, and the @RISK toolbar make learning and navigating @RISK a snap.

Three Editions to Meet Your Needs
 
@RISK Industrial Pro Standard
 
Advanced Simulation Engine
Support for 2 CPUs or processor cores
Over 50 Built-in Distribution Functions
Integrated Distribution Gallery
Insert Function Command
@RISK Function Swap
Thumbnail Graphs
Compound and Six Sigma functions
Variety of Result Graphs and Charts
Customized Excel Reports
Live Updating During Simulation
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
Correlation of Inputs
Copulas
Freehand Distribution Artist
@RISK Data Viewer
Integrated Distribution Fitting  
Integration with Microsoft Project  
@RISK Library  
Excel Developer Kit (XDK)  
Stress Analysis  
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis  
@RISK Goal Seek  
Full Multi-CPU Support    
Simulation of Time-series Forecasts    
RISKOptimizer    

Optimization under uncertainty

   

Ranges for adjustable cells and constraints

   

Genetic algorithms

   

Six solving methods, including GAs and OptQuest

   

Efficient Frontier Analysis

   

RISKOptimizer Watcher

   

Convergence monitoring and genetic operators

   

Original, Best, Last model updating

   
@RISK Features & Benefits
 
FEATURES BENEFITS
 
Monte Carlo simulation Shows possible outcomes to avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities
100% Excel calculations for simulation
 
Highest level of accuracy, and maximum 
use of multi-core processors for speed
INTERFACE  
Seamless integration into Microsoft Excel Never leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly
Intuitive toolbars and right-click menus Easy navigation—multiple ways to perform common tasks
MODELING  
Distribution palette and Insert Function command Easy and accurate definition of uncertain factors
BestFit distribution fitting and Distribution Artist Use data and expert judgment to define uncertain factors
Over 50 built-in distribution functions
 
Represent virtually any uncertain 
factor for accurate modeling
@RISK Function Swap
 
Remove (and later restore) @RISK functions for sharing models with non-@RISK users
Thumbnail Graphs
 
Graphically share input distributions and simulation results with non-@RISK users
Integration with Microsoft Project 

 
Read Microsoft Project schedules into @RISK for Excel for risk modeling of any project with maximum flexibility
@RISK Library
 
Define, reuse, and share custom distributions and simulation results
Compound function
 
Combines two distributions into one to streamline
insurance or other large models
Percentile distribution parameters More flexible ways to define uncertainty
Correlation of inputs and correlation time series
 
Represent dependency between related 
variables for accurate modeling
Copulas
 
Useful in the financial community, copulas provide sophisticated methods for correlating uncertain @RISK variables that allow more control over the correlation pattern
Simulation of Time-series forecasts 
 
Understand the risks in values that change 
over time
@RISK Data Viewer
 
Display any spreadsheet data using all @RISK charts and graphing options
SIMULATION  
Demo Mode and live updating
 
Graphs and reports update during simulation for
illustration to others
Extensive settings control Customize simulations to specific needs
Multi-CPU Support 
 
“Split up” large simulations to run on multiple CPUs or cores and reduce simulation run time
SIMULATION RESULTS  
Fully customizable presentation-quality graphs

 
See the impact of risk and communicate to stakeholders
Reporting in Office
 
 
All graphs and charts can be exported to Excel, 
Word, and PowerPoint in native chart format for 
easy distribution to others
One-click Quick Reports
 
See summary of charts and graphs
pre-formatted for one page
Customized Excel Reports
 
Create exactly the simulation results reports you want directly in Excel, automatically formatted for optimal viewing
Histograms, area, line, cumulative, summary, 
box plot, and overlay graphs
Variety of graphing and charting options 
for easy, accurate communication
Tornado charts and scatter plots

 
Visually identify critical factors and trends, overall and for particular scenarios
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
 
 
Identify the individual tasks that have the 
most impact on results, and the particular 
scenarios that lead to certain results
Six Sigma functions Report Six Sigma statistics for quality analysis
Multi-core processor and multiple CPU support Speed up simulations
OPTIMIZATION  
RISKOptimizer Combines Monte Carlo simulation with sophisticated optimization techniques to find the best combination of factors that lead to a desired result under uncertain conditions
Efficient Frontier Analysis Especially useful in financial analysis, Efficient Frontiers determine the optimal return that can be expected from a portfolio at a given level of risk
100% Excel

@RISK simulations are calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results-and fast-using @RISK!

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